@RISK Standard 5.0
Introduction
Define uncertainties, specify performance measures, run you simulations and then generate analysis reports within Microsoft Excel.
The Need for Risk Analysis
You make decisions every day. Where to invest, what product to produce, which vendor to use, what price to charge - the list is endless. You probably base your decisions on whatever data you have on hand - historical costs, competitors' prices, vendor estimates, etc. But how often do you have full, complete information? Prices change, demand fluctuates, costs rise. It's easy to make the wrong decision if you don't take all possible scenarios into account. Making the best decisions means performing risk analysis.
Have you ever seen a financial spreadsheet representing multimillion-dollar ventures containing only best case, worst case, and most likely scenarios? Or, have you worked in situations where marketing, R&D, engineering, and other key decisions were based on "best guess" estimates of factors like demand, market share, and effects of competition? Chances are if you work in pharmaceuticals, consumer products, financial planning, manufacturing, oil and gas, the military, energy, government, securities, insurance, or virtually any other industry, the answer to these questions is "Yes!" The fact is that the vast majority of Fortune 1000 companies, universities, and government agencies make multimillion-dollar decisions without taking more than three different possible outcomes into account! In reality, there are almost always dozens -- if not thousands -- of possible scenarios that could affect an organisation's bottom line. Recent high-profile debacles like Enron, Ford's $5 billion loss, Orange County California, and others have shown what can happen when companies ignore these various possibilities.
@RISK Shows You ALL Possible Outcomes
@RISK changes all that. @RISK lets you see all possible outcomes in your situation - and tells you how likely they are to occur! What this means for you -- the decision maker -- is that you finally have, if not perfect information, the most complete picture possible. You will see what could happen, how likely it is to happen, and therefore be able to judge accordingly which risks to take and which ones to avoid. While no software package can predict the future, @RISK can enable you to choose the best personal strategy based on the available information. That's not a bad guarantee!