Forecast Pro Basic 5.1
Introduction
Forecast Pro Basic Edition is designed for individuals with modest forecasting needs. It utilizes time series approaches (techniques that create forecasts based strictly upon the past history) and allows you to forecast up to 10 items (such as products or SKUs) at a time.
For the novice, Forecast Pro does not require a background in statistics or forecasting and instead provides an expert selection mode which makes creating a reliable forecast as easy as clicking a mouse button. For experts, Forecast Pro offers a wide range of state-of-the-art forecasting models, diagnostics and options. All models allow either manual or automatic identification.
More specifically, Forecast Pro uses proven forecasting techniques: moving averages, exponential smoothing, Box-Jenkins and dynamic regression (Forecast Pro XE only). It also provides a neat diagnostic summary that shows why the chosen technique is the best. Forecast Pro accepts a variety of different formats and can easily edit and import data.
Use Expert Selection to Create a Forecast
By using the expert selection mode available in Forecast Pro you can take the guesswork out of forecasting. The built-in expert system analyzes your data, selects the appropriate forecasting technique, builds the model and calculates the forecasts—it even explains its reasoning in ordinary English!
The expert system in Forecast Pro (Basic Edition) chooses among the following classes of forecasting models:
- Simple Methods - For very short or extremely volatile data, Forecast Pro includes moving average models.
- Low Volume Models - Croston's Intermittent Demand model and discrete data models are provided to accommodate low volume and "sparse" data (i.e., data where the demand is often zero).
- Exponential Smoothing - Twelve different Holt-Winters exponential smoothing models are provided to accommodate a wide range of data characteristics. The robustness of exponential smoothing makes it ideal when there are no leading indicators, and when the data are too short or volatile for Box-Jenkins. You can select the model and set the parameters yourself or let Forecast Pro do it automatically.
- Box-Jenkins - For stable data sets, Forecast Pro supports a multiplicative seasonal Box-Jenkins model. The model can be built completely automatically or interactively using a full range of screen-oriented diagnostics.