Crystal Ball is the easiest way to perform fast risk analysis and optimisation in your own spreadsheets. With one integrated toolset, you can use your own historical data to build accurate models, automate "what if" analysis to understand the effect of underlying uncertainty and search for the best solution or project mix.
Oracle Crystal Ball is the leading spreadsheet-based application for predictive modeling, forecasting, simulation, and optimization. It gives you unparalleled insight into the critical factors affecting risk. With Crystal Ball, you can make the right tactical decisions to reach your objectives and gain a competitive edge under even the most uncertain market conditions.
New Features in v188.8.131.52
Grouped Assumptions in Sensitivity Charts
You can group assumptions in a sensitivity chart to combine similar assumptions, such as grouping Monthly assumptions into a single Year assumption group. Use the Sensitivity menu in a sensitivity chart window.
Data Filtering When Fitting Distributions
When fitting distributions for assumptions, you can filter historical data to use only data values that fall within specified value ranges. Unused values are not permanently deleted, only discarded for the purpose of distribution fitting. Once used, filter settings are saved as global preferences and are used each time you select Filter data in the Fit Distribution dialog until you change the settings.
Parameter Edits When Fitting Distributions
A new setting in the Comparison Chart window enables you to edit parameters for assumptions created by distribution fitting. By default, a distribution of the accepted type with default parameters is created in the selected cell. If you select Edit after Accept, the Assumption dialog opens with the parameter entries taken from the chosen distribution. You can change the distribution parameters and save the modified assumption.
Expanded Distribution Parameters
The maximum number of trials allowed for binomial distributions and the maximum rate allowed for Poisson distributions have both been expanded to 1e9.
Predictor now uses multiple cores (CPUs) to process all the time series in historical data. Calculations are shared between all available cores, run in parallel, and the results are displayed much faster than before.
Localization into Additional Languages
The Crystal Ball user interface is now translated into French, German, Japanese, Portuguese, and Spanish. Documentation is not translated.
Adding Probability to Risk Calculations
What is the likelihood of reaching a particular goal? What are the critical factors affecting risk? The answer to these and other common "what-if" scenarios can be determined by assigning probability to unknown variables. Excel can't handle the complexity of probability analysis, so you need a better tool: Crystal Ball.
Crystal Ball automates the cumbersome "what-if" process using Monte Carlo simulation, by applying a range of values or a probability distribution to each uncertain variable.
The program generates random values from within the defined probability ranges, and then recalculates the model literally hundreds or thousands of times, storing the results of each "what-if" scenario. This timesaving process alleviates having to manually enter different scenarios over and over again.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Calculates multiple scenarios of a spreadsheet model automatically. Frees users from the constraints of estimates and best-guess values.
Provides an intuitive interface for selecting model input variables; includes 16 discrete and continuous distributions plus custom distribution. Simplifies the quantifying of risk, means you don't have to enter the distribution formula into Excel.
Categories of Distributions
Create predefined distributions, modify your existing distributions and organize them using custom categories. Create your own library of distributions, organized in categories. Re-use distributions from one project to the next.
Publish and Subscribe Feature for Categories
Publish categories and share with many users. Work as a team sharing models and data to get your work done faster.
Process Capability Features
Define spec limits (LSL, USL and Target) in your forecasts, calculate capability metrics and view simulation results and metrics together in one split-view chart. With capability metrics in Crystal Ball you simplify your workflow and better integrate simulation into your Six Sigma and Quality methodology.
Graphically display simulation results and statistics. Allows users to track and analyze thousands of possible outcomes; charts are interactive.
View forecast charts, descriptive statistics and capability metrics side-by-side on the same chart. Enable up to 6 charts and tables in one view. One chart tells the whole story.
Sensitivity and Tornado Analyses
Two separate methods for identifying the most critical model input variables. Enable users to focus on high-risk model input variables.
Uses historical data for defining assumptions. Can fit to continuous and discrete distributions. Allows users to customize model input variables based on real-world results.
Models dependencies between uncertain input variables. Provides more accurate modeling and forecasting.
Charting and Reporting
Automates report generation, includes the ability to overlay forecasts and to project trends through time. Creates clear analysis and presentation of all forecasts, improves communication with colleagues, management, and clients.
Provides advanced simulation capabilities. Increases simulation accuracy and flexibility; saves time.
Latin Hypercube Sampling
Alternative simulation method to Monte Carlo. Samples regularly across distribution, excellent for simulations with restriction on number of trials.
Exports data from Crystal Ball memory. Allows users to examine individual simulation results and transfer results to other software programs.
Macro-driven tools that use Crystal Ball; Includes scenario analysis, decision table, data analysis, tornado chart, correlation matrices, 2D-simulation, batch fit, and boot strap. Automates modeling processes with effortless and powerful tools.
CB Predictor uses established forecasting methods to help identify and extrapolate the trends in your historical data. CB Predictor analyzes your data and produces insightful and accurate forecasts.
Crystal Ball and CB Predictor Developer Kits
The Crystal Ball and CB Predictor Developer Kits bring complete automation and control to these tools from within a Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) program or any other language outside of Excel that supports OLE 2 automation.
Certified Excel macro provider. Eliminates security concerns.
Industry Examples of Crystal Ball
There are many industries that use Crystal Ball software. Crystal Ball is the tool chosen by more than 85% of the Fortune 500 companies. Like in the United States, Crystal Ball is the most popular choice in Australia and New Zealand to help improve spreadsheet modelling and risk analysis.
The rapidly fluctuating price of minerals, increasing competition and volatile financial markets have placed the mining industry in a position of ever-increasing risk.
Oil & Gas exploration deals with many unknowns, with high risk and uncertainty an inherent part of the oil and gas industry. The management of risk in oil and gas exploration has always been difficult.
Six Sigma is a set of practices originally developed by Motorola to systematically improve processes by eliminating defects. Motorola uses Crystal Ball in its Six Sigma Program.
Crystal Ball is for anyone who uses spreadsheets and needs to forecast uncertain results. Environmental geologists, cost engineers, environmental scientists, hydrogeologists and project managers all rely on Crystal Ball.
To ignore the effects of uncertainty in your financial and business analyses means to potentially expose your organisation to unnecessary risk and potential failure.